Wiseguys are advising to hold off on these NCAAF bowl odds
Dec 17, 2017 |
By: Steve Merril
With almost a month between games for some teams (longer for others), we bring you a special edition of college football line watch. Covers Experts' Steve Merril takes a look at some NCAAF bowl game odds and signals out a few games to hold off on, giving the odds a little bit of extra time to move in your favor. Sharps have flagged these bowl games as early lines to keep an eye on.
Spread to bet later:
Southern Miss (+16.5) vs. Florida State
Both teams finished the regular season on a perfect 3-0 SU run, but the motivation for each squad is completely different in the Independence Bowl. Florida State began the season as the #3 ranked team in the nation, but after losing to Alabama and losing their starting quarterback, the Seminoles went on a downward spiral which saw them with a 3-6 SU record. FSU had to win their final three games just to become bowl eligible. They will have no interest in this minor bowl game.
Meanwhile, Southern Miss is coming off an 8-4 SU regular season and their offense is in excellent current form, scoring 137 points in their past three wins. This compliments a defense that allowed just 23.0 points per game this season on 4.9 yards per play versus opponents that averaged 5.3 yppl. This line opened at +14 and has been bet higher. Wait for it to hit the key number of +17 or more.
Spread to bet later:
Central Florida (+9.5) vs. Auburn
This line opened +8 and was quickly bet higher. Wait for it to hit the key number of +10 or more. Motivation is the key to handicapping bowl games and it is hard to imagine that Auburn will be excited for this early kickoff on New Year's Day, especially knowing they were one win away from participating in the national semi-final playoff games later on this same evening. Auburn had an emotional upset win over Alabama, and then lost a huge SEC championship game to Georgia, so a letdown is now very likely in this Peach Bowl.
Central Florida qualifies as a live underdog in this game with a perfect 12-0 SU record and an explosive offense that averages an incredible 49.4 points per game on 7.6 yards per play this season versus opponents that allow just 33.7 ppg on 6.0 yppl. The Golden Knights have a balanced attack that rushes for 201 yards (5.2 ypr) and passes for 339 yards per game (10.5 ypa). Central Florida has plenty of backdoor cover potential if needed late in this game.
Total to watch:
Utah State vs. New Mexico State (61.5)
This Over/Under line for the Arizona Bowl opened at 61 and has been bet slightly higher. These minor bowl games have a tendency to be higher scoring than normal, and that will likely be the case in this game with a pair of solid offenses. Utah State averages 31.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season versus opponents that allow just 28.6 ppg. The Aggies were especially strong on the road where they averaged 32.0 points per game on 6.0 yards per play while going 5-1 to the Over.
New Mexico State threw the ball for 78% of their total offensive yards this season. They average a solid 29.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play. These Aggies have also been stronger on the road this season where they average 32.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play while going 5-2 to the
Trends from Scores & Odds
December 17, 2017
12/23/2017 - 3:30 PM
ARMY @ SAN DIEGO ST
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO ST using the money line in All games after a bye week
The record is 15 Wins and 24 Losses since 1992
12/23/2017 - 7:00 PM
APPALACHIAN ST @ TOLEDO
Play ON APPALACHIAN ST using the money line in Road games off a win against a conference rival
The record is 11 Wins and 2 Losses since 1992
12/27/2017 - 9:00 PM
MISSOURI @ TEXAS
Play AGAINST TEXAS using the money line in All games in all games
The record is 4 Wins and 6 Losses this season
12/29/2017 - 3:00 PM
NC STATE @ ARIZONA ST
Play ON ARIZONA ST using the money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 7 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons
12/29/2017 - 4:30 PM
KENTUCKY @ NORTHWESTERN
Play ON NORTHWESTERN using the money line in All games after playing a conference game
The record is 18 Wins and 6 Losses for the last three seasons 2/30/2017 - 12:00 PM
LOUISVILLE @ MISSISSIPPI ST
Play ON LOUISVILLE using the money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins
The record is 48 Wins and 43 Losses since 1992
12/30/2017 - 8:00 PM
WISCONSIN @ MIAMI
Play AGAINST MIAMI using the money line in Home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 5 Wins and 9 Losses since 1992