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October 26, 2017 @ 7:00 PM EST
Eastern Michigan Eagles +7.5 Won 27 - 24 (OT)
Visiting Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-5) is coming off a close 20-17 OT home loss to Western Michigan and their opponent, the Northern Illinois Huskies made easy work of Bowling Green in a 52-10 road win last Saturday. Northern Illinois (5-2) defeated Eastern Michigan by 31-24 last season.
Eastern Michigan always needs senior QB Brogan Roback to have a great game if they are to win. He played well in the loss to the Broncos as he had a season-high 308 passing yards with one TD against one INT. However, with a poor running game all season he has also been pressing, throwing only 10 TD passes with 8 INT. In 2016 he had only 7 INT all season. The Eagles leading RB Ian Eriksen has only 340 yards on the season. The Eagles only average 19.9 points per game.
Northern Illinois QB Marcus Childers made his third straight start and was again very good; completing 21 of 33 passes for 239 yards with 3 TD's. Huskies’ leading rusher Jordan Huff sat out for undisclosed reasons, and it is unknown if he will suit up in this one. They will also not have star WR Bryan Copeland and even though he has missed the last 2, the Huskies have not faced a pass defense as strong as Eastern Michigan's. They also have a very strong defense, ranking in the top 15 in the nation, in several categories.
Eastern Michigan is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Northern Illinois has beat Eastern Michigan 9 straight games, their 2 losses this season have been to quality teams (Boston College and San Diego St), have a very good running game (197 YPG), and a strong defense. Eastern Michigan also features a very strong defense that should allow them to keep this one close. They are only allowing an average of 167.9 passing YPG and they still have a good QB themselves. Brogan can throw it, averaging 274 passing YPG and with over 1800 yards he ranks #3 in the MAC. Eastern Michigan has kept all their games close, losing by five or fewer points in four straight games, and were able to hold the powerful offense of Toledo to 20 points. I am recommending taking the 7.5 points.