Sweet 16 betting opens with sharps and public jumping all over Kentucky
March 18, 2018
By: Patrick Everson
No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats (-5)
Kentucky is the huge beneficiary of a completely blown-apart South Region, with the top four seeds having already gone home, including No. 1 overall seed Virginia. The blue-and-white-clad Wildcats (26-10 SU, 19-17 ATS) got a tough battle from Davidson in the first round, but rolled past first-day darling Buffalo 95-75 as a 5.5-point chalk Saturday to reach Thursday’s regional semifinal.
Kansas State (24-11 SU, 15-17 ATS) would have met Virginia in the second round, if the Cavaliers weren’t historically humbled by Maryland-Baltimore County. So the purple-and-white-clad Wildcats instead faced UMBC on Sunday and survived horrible offensive stretches – by both teams – to nab a 50-43 victory as a 10-point favorite.
“Kentucky opened as a 5-point favorite, but that line was quickly bet up to 6,” Fields said. “Smart money is seeing value in a Kentucky team that seems to be finding its stride at just the right time, and the fact it will be playing next door in Atlanta with a ravenous fan base that should fill Philips Arena. Right now, both the smart money and the public action are united in support of Kentucky.”
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 7 Nevada Wolf Pack (-2.5)
The Sweet 16 will open Thursday night with these two surprising outfits looking for an Elite Eight date. Loyola-Chicago sprung the first memorable moment of this year’s NCAA Tourney, beating Miami 64-62 on a last-second 3-pointer Thursday as a 1.5-point underdog. On Saturday, the Ramblers (30-5 SU, 21-9-1 ATS) again got a late bucket in the waning seconds to upend No. 3 Tennessee 63-62 as a 5-point pup.
Nevada survived overtime against Texas in its first-round game, but looked ready to catch a plane midway through the second half of Sunday’s South Region contest against No. 2 seed Cincinnati. The Wolf Pack (29-7 SU, 18-14-3 ATS) trailed 65-43 with under 11 minutes remaining, then went haywire with a 32-8 run to beat the Bearcats 75-73 catching 8.5 points.
Early movement at Bookmaker.eu went toward the Ramblers.
“This was an example of moving the number not based on how much was bet, but who was betting it,” Fields said. “Once we saw some of a couple of our most respected basketball handicappers come in on Loyola-Chicago, we dropped the line from the opening price of 2.5 down to 2. This was mostly done as a precaution to make sure they weren't seeing something we weren't. The public seems to think this will be a high-scoring affair, as they have been pounding the Over since we put this game on the board.”
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (-1.5)
This matchup actually went exactly according to seeding, the only Sweet 16 contest to do so. Purdue overcame the absence of Isaac Haas (first-round broken elbow) to move into the tournament’s second weekend. The Boilermakers (30-6 SU, 16-18-1 ATS) held off in-state rival Butler 76-63 as a 4-point fave Sunday.
Texas Tech also survived a tightly contested second-round game to get into the East Region semis. The Red Raiders (26-9 SU, 14-16-1 ATS) fended off Florida 69-66 laying 1.5 points.
“If Isaac Haas were healthy and available, we would have opened Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite over Texas Tech,” Fields said of this Friday clash. “With Haas' availability doubtful, we opened up Purdue as a 1.5 point favorite, but early action on the Red Raiders dropped the line to 1. Purdue didn't look good against Butler, and Texas Tech is not the team you want to face without one of your top players.”
“Since we put this game on the board, we have seen a divide, with smart money coming in on the Red Raiders and the public sticking with the Boilermakers.”
No. 9 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-5)
Florida State was among those teams throwing knockout punches to programs expected to go much further in the tournament. The Seminoles (22-11 SU, 17-13-1 ATS) trailed West No. 1 seed Xavier by a dozen midway through the second half, but rallied for a 75-70 victory as a 5.5-point underdog Sunday.
Gonzaga got all it could handle from upstart No. 13 seed North Carolina-Greensboro in the opening round, and it looked like things would be easier after the first few minutes of Round 2. That wasn’t the case, though. The Bulldogs (32-4 SU, 15-17-1 ATS) took a 15-0 lead on Ohio State, gave it all back and more to trail in the second half, then fought back for a 90-84 victory giving 4.5 points Saturday.
“We opened up Gonzaga as 5-point favorites and got hit with sharp action right out of the gate,” Shields said of wagering on this Thursday meeting. “We seemingly couldn't write a substantial bet on Florida State until we moved the line up to 6. Offensively, the Bulldogs should be too much for the Seminoles to handle, and early line movement reflects that. It's still early, but we could have to go to 6.5 or 7 by game time to balance out the one-sided action coming in on Gonzaga.”
No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5)
Michigan pulled off a death-defying victory while moving ahead to a Thursday night Sweet 16 date in the West Region. The Wolverines (30-7 SU, 23-12-1 ATS) battled with Houston the entire game Saturday and hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to snatch a 64-63 victory as a 3.5-point favorite.
Texas A&M played the role of blue-blood beater on Sunday. The Aggies (22-12 SU, 15-16 ATS) blew the doors off of No. 2 seed North Carolina, leading by 14 at halftime and piling on from there for a stunning 86-65 victory as a 5.5-point pup.
“We have seen steady action on both Michigan and Texas A&M, as there doesn't seem to be much of a consensus on which side is the right play,” Fields said. “Early support on the Aggies dropped the line down to 3. With two of the better defensive teams left in the tournament facing off, we expected to get hit early on the Under, but thus far, this game seems to have everyone divided.
“The discord surrounding this game has made it a bookmaker's dream, as evenly split action on both teams continues to pour in.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
March 18, 2018
By: Patrick Everson
No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats (-5)
Kentucky is the huge beneficiary of a completely blown-apart South Region, with the top four seeds having already gone home, including No. 1 overall seed Virginia. The blue-and-white-clad Wildcats (26-10 SU, 19-17 ATS) got a tough battle from Davidson in the first round, but rolled past first-day darling Buffalo 95-75 as a 5.5-point chalk Saturday to reach Thursday’s regional semifinal.
Kansas State (24-11 SU, 15-17 ATS) would have met Virginia in the second round, if the Cavaliers weren’t historically humbled by Maryland-Baltimore County. So the purple-and-white-clad Wildcats instead faced UMBC on Sunday and survived horrible offensive stretches – by both teams – to nab a 50-43 victory as a 10-point favorite.
“Kentucky opened as a 5-point favorite, but that line was quickly bet up to 6,” Fields said. “Smart money is seeing value in a Kentucky team that seems to be finding its stride at just the right time, and the fact it will be playing next door in Atlanta with a ravenous fan base that should fill Philips Arena. Right now, both the smart money and the public action are united in support of Kentucky.”
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 7 Nevada Wolf Pack (-2.5)
The Sweet 16 will open Thursday night with these two surprising outfits looking for an Elite Eight date. Loyola-Chicago sprung the first memorable moment of this year’s NCAA Tourney, beating Miami 64-62 on a last-second 3-pointer Thursday as a 1.5-point underdog. On Saturday, the Ramblers (30-5 SU, 21-9-1 ATS) again got a late bucket in the waning seconds to upend No. 3 Tennessee 63-62 as a 5-point pup.
Nevada survived overtime against Texas in its first-round game, but looked ready to catch a plane midway through the second half of Sunday’s South Region contest against No. 2 seed Cincinnati. The Wolf Pack (29-7 SU, 18-14-3 ATS) trailed 65-43 with under 11 minutes remaining, then went haywire with a 32-8 run to beat the Bearcats 75-73 catching 8.5 points.
Early movement at Bookmaker.eu went toward the Ramblers.
“This was an example of moving the number not based on how much was bet, but who was betting it,” Fields said. “Once we saw some of a couple of our most respected basketball handicappers come in on Loyola-Chicago, we dropped the line from the opening price of 2.5 down to 2. This was mostly done as a precaution to make sure they weren't seeing something we weren't. The public seems to think this will be a high-scoring affair, as they have been pounding the Over since we put this game on the board.”
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (-1.5)
This matchup actually went exactly according to seeding, the only Sweet 16 contest to do so. Purdue overcame the absence of Isaac Haas (first-round broken elbow) to move into the tournament’s second weekend. The Boilermakers (30-6 SU, 16-18-1 ATS) held off in-state rival Butler 76-63 as a 4-point fave Sunday.
Texas Tech also survived a tightly contested second-round game to get into the East Region semis. The Red Raiders (26-9 SU, 14-16-1 ATS) fended off Florida 69-66 laying 1.5 points.
“If Isaac Haas were healthy and available, we would have opened Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite over Texas Tech,” Fields said of this Friday clash. “With Haas' availability doubtful, we opened up Purdue as a 1.5 point favorite, but early action on the Red Raiders dropped the line to 1. Purdue didn't look good against Butler, and Texas Tech is not the team you want to face without one of your top players.”
“Since we put this game on the board, we have seen a divide, with smart money coming in on the Red Raiders and the public sticking with the Boilermakers.”
No. 9 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-5)
Florida State was among those teams throwing knockout punches to programs expected to go much further in the tournament. The Seminoles (22-11 SU, 17-13-1 ATS) trailed West No. 1 seed Xavier by a dozen midway through the second half, but rallied for a 75-70 victory as a 5.5-point underdog Sunday.
Gonzaga got all it could handle from upstart No. 13 seed North Carolina-Greensboro in the opening round, and it looked like things would be easier after the first few minutes of Round 2. That wasn’t the case, though. The Bulldogs (32-4 SU, 15-17-1 ATS) took a 15-0 lead on Ohio State, gave it all back and more to trail in the second half, then fought back for a 90-84 victory giving 4.5 points Saturday.
“We opened up Gonzaga as 5-point favorites and got hit with sharp action right out of the gate,” Shields said of wagering on this Thursday meeting. “We seemingly couldn't write a substantial bet on Florida State until we moved the line up to 6. Offensively, the Bulldogs should be too much for the Seminoles to handle, and early line movement reflects that. It's still early, but we could have to go to 6.5 or 7 by game time to balance out the one-sided action coming in on Gonzaga.”
No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5)
Michigan pulled off a death-defying victory while moving ahead to a Thursday night Sweet 16 date in the West Region. The Wolverines (30-7 SU, 23-12-1 ATS) battled with Houston the entire game Saturday and hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to snatch a 64-63 victory as a 3.5-point favorite.
Texas A&M played the role of blue-blood beater on Sunday. The Aggies (22-12 SU, 15-16 ATS) blew the doors off of No. 2 seed North Carolina, leading by 14 at halftime and piling on from there for a stunning 86-65 victory as a 5.5-point pup.
“We have seen steady action on both Michigan and Texas A&M, as there doesn't seem to be much of a consensus on which side is the right play,” Fields said. “Early support on the Aggies dropped the line down to 3. With two of the better defensive teams left in the tournament facing off, we expected to get hit early on the Under, but thus far, this game seems to have everyone divided.
“The discord surrounding this game has made it a bookmaker's dream, as evenly split action on both teams continues to pour in.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
Early sharp March Madness betting action has been on big underdogs
Mar 12, 2018 |
By: Patrick Everson
One of the reasons why March is the best time for basketball betting are those memorable Cinderella stories during the NCAA tournament. And it seems we’re getting more of those upsets every year as the gap between power conferences and mid-majors slims. With brackets on the board and everyone and their dog wanting to predict the path to the Final Four, hoop heads will want to consider these three small schools to step on some toes during the Big Dance.
No. 15 Iona Gaels vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils – Open: -20; Move: -19
Perennial championship contender Duke is on a 7-2 SU and ATS run over its last nine games, though it bowed out in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. A week after beating North Carolina in the regular-season finale, the Blue Devils (26-7 SU, 20-11 ATS) tumbled to the Tar Heels 74-69 as a 4-point favorite Friday night.
Iona was the No. 4 seed in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but made a three-game run through the conference tourney to claim the automatic NCAA bid. The Gaels (20-13 SU, 15-14 ATS) capped their run with an 83-71 victory over Fairfield as a 2.5-point chalk on March 5.
Early sharp play was on the heavy underdog, taking the number down a point for this Thursday matchup.
“I’m rooting against the joint. They bet Iona, and that’s who I’m rooting for,” Kaminsky said. “I want Iona to win outright, because the school is in New Rochelle, N.Y., where ‘The Dick Van Dyke Show’ was set. That was one of my favorite TV shows when I was a kid.”
No. 16 Pennsylvania Quakers vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks – Open: -15; Move: -14
Like Duke, Kansas is another team that’s always a high seed with a chance to make a March run. The Jayhawks (27-7 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) won and cashed in all three of their Big 12 Tournament games last weekend, dropping West Virginia 81-70 in Saturday’s final as a 1.5-point underdog.
Penn shared the Ivy League’s regular-season crown, then got the title that really mattered in the league tournament. The Quakers (24-8 SU, 13-14 ATS) entered the Ivy final as a 2.5-point favorite against Harvard, fell behind by 13 in the first half, but quickly rallied to go up 13 in the second half and hang on for a 68-65 win.
“They took Penn, which has been the best team in the Ivy League all year. Every Friday and Saturday, every square bettor was taking Penn,” Kaminsky said, while noting in the case of this Thursday meeting, it was wiseguy money on the Quakers. “They took the 15, we’re down to 14 against Rock Chalk Jayhawk.”
No. 14 Montana Grizzlies vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines – Open: -12; Move: -11
Michigan is arguably the hottest team heading into the Big Dance and will have had 10 days off before this Thursday game tips. The Wolverines (28-7 SU, 22-11-1 ATS) are on a 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS spree, including a perfect four-game run through the Big Ten Tournament, where they topped Purdue 75-66 catching 4 points in the March 4 final.
Montana is the toast of the Big Sky Conference, as both the regular-season and tournament champ. The Grizzlies (26-7 SU, 19-11-1 ATS) needed overtime to beat Northern Colorado in the Big Sky semis, but rolled over Eastern Washington in the final, 82-65 giving 4.5 points Saturday.
Kaminsky said one bettor whom he described as “semi-sharp” helped move this number down a point.
“The guy who bet it used to live in Mexico, and now he’s in Bogota, Colombia,” Kaminsky said. “He took the ‘dog +12, and we went to 11.”
No. 12 Murray State Racers vs. No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -10.5; Move: -9.5
West Virginia was so good this season that it was in position to beat Kansas three times – but lost all three. The Mountaineers (24-10 SU, 15-15 ATS) got their latest shot at the Jayhawks in Saturday’s Big 12 Tournament final, and even went off as a 1.5-point favorite in Kansas City, but fell 81-70.
Murray State claimed the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season and tournament titles, and hasn’t lost in nearly two months. The Racers (26-5 SU, 17-11 ATS) are on a 13-game SU roll (8-5 ATS), breezing by Belmont 68-51 as a 1.5-point underdog in the OVC title game on March 3.
“They took +10.5 down to +9.5. That’s sharp money,” Kaminsky said of early action on the underdog Racers.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas
Mar 12, 2018 |
By: Patrick Everson
One of the reasons why March is the best time for basketball betting are those memorable Cinderella stories during the NCAA tournament. And it seems we’re getting more of those upsets every year as the gap between power conferences and mid-majors slims. With brackets on the board and everyone and their dog wanting to predict the path to the Final Four, hoop heads will want to consider these three small schools to step on some toes during the Big Dance.
No. 15 Iona Gaels vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils – Open: -20; Move: -19
Perennial championship contender Duke is on a 7-2 SU and ATS run over its last nine games, though it bowed out in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. A week after beating North Carolina in the regular-season finale, the Blue Devils (26-7 SU, 20-11 ATS) tumbled to the Tar Heels 74-69 as a 4-point favorite Friday night.
Iona was the No. 4 seed in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but made a three-game run through the conference tourney to claim the automatic NCAA bid. The Gaels (20-13 SU, 15-14 ATS) capped their run with an 83-71 victory over Fairfield as a 2.5-point chalk on March 5.
Early sharp play was on the heavy underdog, taking the number down a point for this Thursday matchup.
“I’m rooting against the joint. They bet Iona, and that’s who I’m rooting for,” Kaminsky said. “I want Iona to win outright, because the school is in New Rochelle, N.Y., where ‘The Dick Van Dyke Show’ was set. That was one of my favorite TV shows when I was a kid.”
No. 16 Pennsylvania Quakers vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks – Open: -15; Move: -14
Like Duke, Kansas is another team that’s always a high seed with a chance to make a March run. The Jayhawks (27-7 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) won and cashed in all three of their Big 12 Tournament games last weekend, dropping West Virginia 81-70 in Saturday’s final as a 1.5-point underdog.
Penn shared the Ivy League’s regular-season crown, then got the title that really mattered in the league tournament. The Quakers (24-8 SU, 13-14 ATS) entered the Ivy final as a 2.5-point favorite against Harvard, fell behind by 13 in the first half, but quickly rallied to go up 13 in the second half and hang on for a 68-65 win.
“They took Penn, which has been the best team in the Ivy League all year. Every Friday and Saturday, every square bettor was taking Penn,” Kaminsky said, while noting in the case of this Thursday meeting, it was wiseguy money on the Quakers. “They took the 15, we’re down to 14 against Rock Chalk Jayhawk.”
No. 14 Montana Grizzlies vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines – Open: -12; Move: -11
Michigan is arguably the hottest team heading into the Big Dance and will have had 10 days off before this Thursday game tips. The Wolverines (28-7 SU, 22-11-1 ATS) are on a 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS spree, including a perfect four-game run through the Big Ten Tournament, where they topped Purdue 75-66 catching 4 points in the March 4 final.
Montana is the toast of the Big Sky Conference, as both the regular-season and tournament champ. The Grizzlies (26-7 SU, 19-11-1 ATS) needed overtime to beat Northern Colorado in the Big Sky semis, but rolled over Eastern Washington in the final, 82-65 giving 4.5 points Saturday.
Kaminsky said one bettor whom he described as “semi-sharp” helped move this number down a point.
“The guy who bet it used to live in Mexico, and now he’s in Bogota, Colombia,” Kaminsky said. “He took the ‘dog +12, and we went to 11.”
No. 12 Murray State Racers vs. No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -10.5; Move: -9.5
West Virginia was so good this season that it was in position to beat Kansas three times – but lost all three. The Mountaineers (24-10 SU, 15-15 ATS) got their latest shot at the Jayhawks in Saturday’s Big 12 Tournament final, and even went off as a 1.5-point favorite in Kansas City, but fell 81-70.
Murray State claimed the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season and tournament titles, and hasn’t lost in nearly two months. The Racers (26-5 SU, 17-11 ATS) are on a 13-game SU roll (8-5 ATS), breezing by Belmont 68-51 as a 1.5-point underdog in the OVC title game on March 3.
“They took +10.5 down to +9.5. That’s sharp money,” Kaminsky said of early action on the underdog Racers.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas
WHO ARE THE BEST BUBBLE TEAMS WORTH BACKING BEFORE MARCH MADNESS
This time last year the Vanderbilt Commodores had an uphill climb to qualify for the NIT let alone the NCAA Tournament.
Vandy sat at 12-13 and weren’t on the radar of any expert bracket forecasts. But the team won five of its last six regular season games and made it to the third round of the SEC tourney, before bowing out against Arkansas, and was rewarded with one of the final spots in the Big Dance.
The Commodores went 8-1 against the spread over those last nine games before the start of the Tournament and made their backers a lot of dough on the way to securing that unlikely invitation to the tourney.
There are only a little over three weeks before the selection committee picks the field, which means there are plenty of bubble teams in need of some late-season runs to punch their tickets to the Big Dance.
Who will be this season’s Vanderbilt and fill the coffers of astute college basketball bettors? Covers surveys the best teams on the bubble and whether they have the right stuff to finish strong.
Kentucky Wildcats
Record: 17-9 SU, 10-16 ATS
It’s hard to believe a team led by super-recruiter John Calipari could possibly fail to reach the Tournament, but that’s what could play out if the Wildcats don’t start winning games. Kentucky is winless in its last four, and 2-7 against the spread in its last nine, after its 76-66 loss to Auburn on Tuesday.
Calipari has failed to make it to the Big Dance in just seven of his 24 seasons coaching UMass, Memphis and Kentucky with the last miss coming in 2013. UK were ranked in the top five in both the AP and USA Today preseason polls and added five of the top 25 freshmen recruits.
Forward Kevin Knox needs to start creating better looks for his teammates rather than just seeking out his own shot. The freshman is averaging 1.6 assists per game and the Wildcats average just 0.18 assists per offensive possession.
UCLA Bruins
Record: 17-8 SU, 12-13 ATS
It’s a down year for the Pac-12 with only Arizona looking like an easy pick to get into the tourney. The Bruins are trying to separate themselves from conference rivals USC, Washington and Arizona State so that UCLA will be the first Pac-12 school on the tip of the tongue the selection committee after ‘Zona.
The Bruins are just 2-4 straight up in road games so far in conference play and they still have another three road games remaining before the end of the season. UCLA is 3-1 SU and ATS over its last four games and senior point guard Aaron Holiday is averaging 20.3 points and 7.5 assists over that same stretch. The Bruins will be dancing in March if Holiday can keep it cooking.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Record: 18-7 SU, 13-8 ATS
The Hokies’ outright win as 12-point underdogs at Virginia over the weekend could be the signature result to pad their resume. The pat-on-the-back period was short lived for V-Tech. The Hokies got worked by a Duke side missing its leading scorer Marvin Bagley on Wednesday night. They still have games against Clemson and Miami and another date with Duke on the schedule.
Virginia Tech have won, and covered the spread, in five of its last seven games but the competition in the ACC is tough and a 2-3 finish to the regular season might not be good enough to get them in.
Providence Friars
Record: 17-9 SU, 9-15 ATS
The Friars win over Villanova on Wednesday night went a long way towards helping them get to the Big Dance, but they’re not out of the woods yet. They’re not as bad as they looked during Saturday’s 17-point loss to DePaul and not as good as they looked against ‘Nova. They’re somewhere in the middle.
Providence will likely be favored in three of its final five games. Bettors should expect the Friars to be getting points when they visit Butler and Xavier. The Friars went 6-0 straight up in their final six games of the regular season a year ago and 11-2 ATS over their final 13 contests.
This time last year the Vanderbilt Commodores had an uphill climb to qualify for the NIT let alone the NCAA Tournament.
Vandy sat at 12-13 and weren’t on the radar of any expert bracket forecasts. But the team won five of its last six regular season games and made it to the third round of the SEC tourney, before bowing out against Arkansas, and was rewarded with one of the final spots in the Big Dance.
The Commodores went 8-1 against the spread over those last nine games before the start of the Tournament and made their backers a lot of dough on the way to securing that unlikely invitation to the tourney.
There are only a little over three weeks before the selection committee picks the field, which means there are plenty of bubble teams in need of some late-season runs to punch their tickets to the Big Dance.
Who will be this season’s Vanderbilt and fill the coffers of astute college basketball bettors? Covers surveys the best teams on the bubble and whether they have the right stuff to finish strong.
Kentucky Wildcats
Record: 17-9 SU, 10-16 ATS
It’s hard to believe a team led by super-recruiter John Calipari could possibly fail to reach the Tournament, but that’s what could play out if the Wildcats don’t start winning games. Kentucky is winless in its last four, and 2-7 against the spread in its last nine, after its 76-66 loss to Auburn on Tuesday.
Calipari has failed to make it to the Big Dance in just seven of his 24 seasons coaching UMass, Memphis and Kentucky with the last miss coming in 2013. UK were ranked in the top five in both the AP and USA Today preseason polls and added five of the top 25 freshmen recruits.
Forward Kevin Knox needs to start creating better looks for his teammates rather than just seeking out his own shot. The freshman is averaging 1.6 assists per game and the Wildcats average just 0.18 assists per offensive possession.
UCLA Bruins
Record: 17-8 SU, 12-13 ATS
It’s a down year for the Pac-12 with only Arizona looking like an easy pick to get into the tourney. The Bruins are trying to separate themselves from conference rivals USC, Washington and Arizona State so that UCLA will be the first Pac-12 school on the tip of the tongue the selection committee after ‘Zona.
The Bruins are just 2-4 straight up in road games so far in conference play and they still have another three road games remaining before the end of the season. UCLA is 3-1 SU and ATS over its last four games and senior point guard Aaron Holiday is averaging 20.3 points and 7.5 assists over that same stretch. The Bruins will be dancing in March if Holiday can keep it cooking.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Record: 18-7 SU, 13-8 ATS
The Hokies’ outright win as 12-point underdogs at Virginia over the weekend could be the signature result to pad their resume. The pat-on-the-back period was short lived for V-Tech. The Hokies got worked by a Duke side missing its leading scorer Marvin Bagley on Wednesday night. They still have games against Clemson and Miami and another date with Duke on the schedule.
Virginia Tech have won, and covered the spread, in five of its last seven games but the competition in the ACC is tough and a 2-3 finish to the regular season might not be good enough to get them in.
Providence Friars
Record: 17-9 SU, 9-15 ATS
The Friars win over Villanova on Wednesday night went a long way towards helping them get to the Big Dance, but they’re not out of the woods yet. They’re not as bad as they looked during Saturday’s 17-point loss to DePaul and not as good as they looked against ‘Nova. They’re somewhere in the middle.
Providence will likely be favored in three of its final five games. Bettors should expect the Friars to be getting points when they visit Butler and Xavier. The Friars went 6-0 straight up in their final six games of the regular season a year ago and 11-2 ATS over their final 13 contests.
NCAAB – Trends of the Day
01/31/2018
Admir Aljic
As the Week 13 in college basketball continues, the number of matchups is starting to rise and today, we’ll have a total of 46 duels to work with. There are no H2H showdowns between top-25 teams but there are many very interesting games all across the country including SEC, AAC, Big Ten and MWC contests. We’ve managed to pick out exactly eight active trends that should go in the right direction but if you want to check out every single matchup, you can do it here. Last week’s Wednesday’s games a had a big influence on this week’s team rankings, as some of them plummeted (North Carolina Tar Heels dropped nine spots) and other advanced (Auburn Tigers jumped eight spots up) on the Polls. Let’s see if it will be the case this Wednesday too.
Here are a couple of most interesting duels today: Fresno St. (16-7) at Nevada (18-4), Arizona (18-4) at Washington St. (9-11), Texas (14-7) at Texas Tech (17-4), Butler (16-7) at Marquette (13-8), Maryland (15-8) at Purdue (21-2), Houston (16-4) at Cincinnati (19-2), Louisville (16-5) at Virginia (20-1) and Penn St. (15-8) at Michigan St. (20-3).
ATS TRENDS
O/U TRENDS
01/31/2018
Admir Aljic
As the Week 13 in college basketball continues, the number of matchups is starting to rise and today, we’ll have a total of 46 duels to work with. There are no H2H showdowns between top-25 teams but there are many very interesting games all across the country including SEC, AAC, Big Ten and MWC contests. We’ve managed to pick out exactly eight active trends that should go in the right direction but if you want to check out every single matchup, you can do it here. Last week’s Wednesday’s games a had a big influence on this week’s team rankings, as some of them plummeted (North Carolina Tar Heels dropped nine spots) and other advanced (Auburn Tigers jumped eight spots up) on the Polls. Let’s see if it will be the case this Wednesday too.
Here are a couple of most interesting duels today: Fresno St. (16-7) at Nevada (18-4), Arizona (18-4) at Washington St. (9-11), Texas (14-7) at Texas Tech (17-4), Butler (16-7) at Marquette (13-8), Maryland (15-8) at Purdue (21-2), Houston (16-4) at Cincinnati (19-2), Louisville (16-5) at Virginia (20-1) and Penn St. (15-8) at Michigan St. (20-3).
ATS TRENDS
- The Spartans are 21-7 in their last 28 home games.
- The Bulldogs are 7-1 in their last eight games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
- The Longhorns are 5-1 in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- The Cougars are 10-3 in their last 13 home games.
O/U TRENDS
- Under is 18-7-1 in Cavaliers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 12-5 in Bearcats last 17 overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Boilermakers last nine vs. Big Ten.
- Over is 8-1 in Bulldogs last nine vs. team with a winning straight up record.
Six college basketball conferences staying ahead of Vegas over/under lines
Jan 17, 2018 |
By: Ashton Grewal
You could almost see the hair falling off South Carolina head coach Frank Martin’s head during the first half of Tuesday’s tilt against Kentucky. After jumping out to a 19-12 lead over UK, the Gamecocks failed to make a field goal for the next 10 minutes of game time.
South Carolina finished the first half with just three makes on its final 18 shot attempts. The Gamecocks would rescue the win in the second half despite shooting just 37.1 percent from the field.
Martin isn’t the only coach in his conference dealing with an offensively limited group of players. The average ranking in points scored per game among the 14 teams in the SEC is 101. Oddsmakers are having trouble keeping up with the low-scoring SEC games even after a couple weeks of conference play in the books.
The under is 26-11 in all SEC games this season and it’s not the only conference with an imbalanced over/under record. Here are five other conferences the bookies are having are hard time setting totals for:
Colonial Athletic Association
Combined over/under record: 21-9
Of the 351 teams in Division I college hoops, only seven allow more points per game than NC-Wilmington while Hofstra ranks 300th in the country in points allowed per game at 79.2. Hofstra junior Justin Wright-Foreman is third in the nation in player scoring at 25.6 points per game.
Delaware is the only side in the 10-team conference with more of its games playing under than over the total. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Towson’s six CAA games and 5-1 in James Madison’s conference games.
The over went 3-2 in the five conference games last Saturday and all 10 teams play Thursday.
Atlantic 10
Combined over/under record: 22-13
The over is a perfect 5-0 in St Bonaventure’s five conference games while St. Joseph’s, Richmond, Rhode Island, La Salle and George Mason each have only one under in their inter conference contests. Davidson (0-5), Duquesne (1-4) and Fordham (2-3) are the only teams in the A-10 with more unders than overs.
The over is 4-1 in the Patriots five conference games thanks in large part to the sterling play of Otis Livingstone II. The junior guard is averaging 23.6 points and shooting 53.8 percent on 3s in five A-10 games.
Mid-American Conference
Combined over/under record: 10-19-1
Only three (Toledo, Bowling Green and Akron) of the 12 teams in the MAC rank inside the top 100 in 3-point shooting percentage. Ohio is the biggest anomaly. The over went 7-0 in the Bobcats’ non-conference schedule and 0-5 so far in conference games.
Mountain West Conference
Combined over/under record: 19-10
The Runnin’ Rebels are one of the best over bets in the college basketball with the over cashing in 14 of their 16 games so far this season. UNLV has played over the total in three of their four conference games and the other resulted in a push.
The team is led by impressive freshman Brandon McCoy who’s averaging 18.6 points per game. The big man is a potential first round pick in the upcoming draft and would be a lottery pick if it weren’t for his inability to protect the paint on defense.
Pac-12
Combined over/under record: 11-19-2
Oregon is averaging 81.4 points per game on the season but just 71.4 in its five Pac-12 matchups. That’s a big reason why the Ducks have played over the total in just one of their five conference games.
Oregon State is allowing 4.3 fewer points per game than it did a season ago and the under is a 0-4-1 in Pac-12 games involving the Beavers.
NCAAB Power Rankings: Week 8
By Zack Cimini - Covers Expert
Thanks to a week full of upsets, we have a new No. 1 in the latest edition of our college basketball Power Rankings, the Michigan State Spartans. Sparty has won 13 in a row since falling to No. 2 Duke in their second game of the season. It's another ACC team that made the biggest jump up the rankings this week. Florida State is up nine spots after upsetting UNC and giving the Blue Devils a real scare. Where does your favorite program rank?
(10-5-0) Michigan St Upsets throughout the top ten have pushed forward Michigan State to the top.
(8-4-0) Duke The Blue Devils survived a tougher than anticipated challenge out of the gate against Florida State.
(12-4-0) Xavier They keep finding ways to finish off teams in the final stages of the second half.
(10-2-1) Arizona State Bobby Hurley has to find a team balance or a downward spiral is likely.
(10-4-0) Villanova The dominance they've had has put a prime target on them every night.
(5-5-0) West Virginia Consecutive road victories to open up conference play shows the Mountaineers are a true top ten team.
(6-6-0) Oklahoma It's all about Trae Young right now. He's opening up the offense for the Sooners.
(8-3-0) Virginia In a day and age where offense dominates the headlines it's stunning to see Virginia's defense continue to be their catalyst.
(7-6-0) Texas Christian Jamie Dixon has done a superb job in imprinting his recruiting tactics and style of play.
(4-7-0) Wichita St. One has to wonder if travel fatigue will hit this team in the middle of conference play.
(11-4-0) Purdue is one of those teams that has the core group of familiar carry over talent to do something special. It'
(5-7-2) Arizona Eight straight wins have not only turned their season around but made them an under the radar non-spotlight team.
(7-7-0) Kentucky The Wildcats clearly are not a top five typical Coach Cal team.
(9-2-1) Florida St. Defeating North Carolina and playing neck and neck with Duke showcased Florida State is a legitimate contender
(7-3-0) Texas Tech Texas Tech likely had the best wins to open up conference play. They soundly defeated Baylor and took out Kansas by double-digits in Allen.
(7-8-0) Seton Hall The Pirates continue to not make things easy as they narrowly won their latest matchup against St. Johns.
(8-5-1) North Carolina It appears the Tar Heels have a bit of a chemistry problem with their on court talent.
(6-5-0) Cincinnati The depth of the Bearcats is probably the highest it has been in five to six years.
(8-3-0) Clemson Offensively they have another level to their play that was lacking the past three seasons/
(5-6-0) Texas A&M Coaching staffs with familiarity of Texas A&M have shown a key blueprint to defend
(7-5-0) Gonzaga Losses in the top twenty five have boosted Gonzaga's ATS strength in the weak WCC.
(8-6-0) Creighton Offensively they average 90 points per game, ranking sixth in the country.
(8-4-0) Auburn Credit to Bruce Pearl for keeping his team focused pre-season amidst an NCAA investigation.
(5-4-1) Southern Methodist Their defense in terms of PPG allowed ranks third in the country at 58.9 points per game.
(5-6-0) Notre Dame The loss of Bonzi Colson will no doubt leave a huge production void for the Irish
Power Ratings compute offensive and defensive statistics into one number for each team, while accounting for factors like recent performances and strength of schedule. Power Ratings can be used as a baseline for relative spread index to compare current or future match-ups between two teams. The relative spread does not account for non-statistical factors like home-field advantage, recent injuries, game time decisions, rivalries, publicity, and weather.
By Zack Cimini - Covers Expert
Thanks to a week full of upsets, we have a new No. 1 in the latest edition of our college basketball Power Rankings, the Michigan State Spartans. Sparty has won 13 in a row since falling to No. 2 Duke in their second game of the season. It's another ACC team that made the biggest jump up the rankings this week. Florida State is up nine spots after upsetting UNC and giving the Blue Devils a real scare. Where does your favorite program rank?
(10-5-0) Michigan St Upsets throughout the top ten have pushed forward Michigan State to the top.
(8-4-0) Duke The Blue Devils survived a tougher than anticipated challenge out of the gate against Florida State.
(12-4-0) Xavier They keep finding ways to finish off teams in the final stages of the second half.
(10-2-1) Arizona State Bobby Hurley has to find a team balance or a downward spiral is likely.
(10-4-0) Villanova The dominance they've had has put a prime target on them every night.
(5-5-0) West Virginia Consecutive road victories to open up conference play shows the Mountaineers are a true top ten team.
(6-6-0) Oklahoma It's all about Trae Young right now. He's opening up the offense for the Sooners.
(8-3-0) Virginia In a day and age where offense dominates the headlines it's stunning to see Virginia's defense continue to be their catalyst.
(7-6-0) Texas Christian Jamie Dixon has done a superb job in imprinting his recruiting tactics and style of play.
(4-7-0) Wichita St. One has to wonder if travel fatigue will hit this team in the middle of conference play.
(11-4-0) Purdue is one of those teams that has the core group of familiar carry over talent to do something special. It'
(5-7-2) Arizona Eight straight wins have not only turned their season around but made them an under the radar non-spotlight team.
(7-7-0) Kentucky The Wildcats clearly are not a top five typical Coach Cal team.
(9-2-1) Florida St. Defeating North Carolina and playing neck and neck with Duke showcased Florida State is a legitimate contender
(7-3-0) Texas Tech Texas Tech likely had the best wins to open up conference play. They soundly defeated Baylor and took out Kansas by double-digits in Allen.
(7-8-0) Seton Hall The Pirates continue to not make things easy as they narrowly won their latest matchup against St. Johns.
(8-5-1) North Carolina It appears the Tar Heels have a bit of a chemistry problem with their on court talent.
(6-5-0) Cincinnati The depth of the Bearcats is probably the highest it has been in five to six years.
(8-3-0) Clemson Offensively they have another level to their play that was lacking the past three seasons/
(5-6-0) Texas A&M Coaching staffs with familiarity of Texas A&M have shown a key blueprint to defend
(7-5-0) Gonzaga Losses in the top twenty five have boosted Gonzaga's ATS strength in the weak WCC.
(8-6-0) Creighton Offensively they average 90 points per game, ranking sixth in the country.
(8-4-0) Auburn Credit to Bruce Pearl for keeping his team focused pre-season amidst an NCAA investigation.
(5-4-1) Southern Methodist Their defense in terms of PPG allowed ranks third in the country at 58.9 points per game.
(5-6-0) Notre Dame The loss of Bonzi Colson will no doubt leave a huge production void for the Irish
Power Ratings compute offensive and defensive statistics into one number for each team, while accounting for factors like recent performances and strength of schedule. Power Ratings can be used as a baseline for relative spread index to compare current or future match-ups between two teams. The relative spread does not account for non-statistical factors like home-field advantage, recent injuries, game time decisions, rivalries, publicity, and weather.
The one bet sportsbooks don't want you to make
Nov 10, 2017
By: Jason Logan
The Over/Under lines on NCAA hoops games in the first couple months of the season are the most vulnerable you will find bookmakers at any point in the sports calendar. And they’ll be the first ones to tell you.
“Early (season), middle, late. Honestly, they’re all a nightmare,” Scott Kaminsky, line manager at TheGreek.com, tells Covers of college basketball totals. “The hardest thing for books to beat are totals. It’s a weakness for us all year round. But in the beginnings, the players have the edge.”
It’s a combination of elements that make early college hoops totals the books’ kryptonite. The recent trend of one-and-done players, since the NBA installed its sticky rules, has been a headache for oddsmakers with the constant turnaround of talent at major programs. With rosters switching up year-to-year, it’s tough to base any odds on last year’s production.
Add to those unknowns a massive schedule featuring more than 350 different schools (10 years ago sportsbooks didn’t book small conference games, sticking to the major conferences), coaches trying to find chemistry in their lineups, and the sheer volatility to predicting how a bunch of college kids will perform.
Ed Salmons, an oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, deals with another curve ball when tackling college basketball totals, pointing to different officiating crews around the country.
“College Hoops totals have always been the hardest thing for sportsbooks,” Salmons tells Covers. “Turnover in team players, referees who work the game and how they officiate it. Each game you have different refs from different conferences who are told how to call fouls or not to call fouls from a particular conference.”
And to make matters worse, the only people betting college basketball at this point in the schedule are the wiseguys, who can smell the blood in the water. In fact, when talking to most sportsbooks, the public really doesn’t have an influence on the NCAAB odds until the NCAA tournament begins in mid-March. That leaves line managers to go toe-to-toe with sharps for more than four months.
“During the regular season, the sharps are probably over 90 percent of your total (NCAAB) handle,” says Salmons.
It’s no wonder, with all those factors having a say and the wolves at the door each night, that sportsbooks protect themselves against college hoops totals with extremely low limits in the early goings. According to the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, college totals have a limit of $500 until March Madness, when they can go to $1,000 or higher – depending on the game.
“We have embarrassingly low limits on college basketball right now,” admits Kaminsky, whose customer base is almost entirely sharp bettors. “Probably going to be that low until the New Year.”
Oddsmakers also prioritize games, and not just for the ones being played in major conferences. Exposure factors into how much time is spent sharpening the number, so a nationally televised matchup – like that between Kansas and Kentucky in the Champions Classic earlier this month – will get the bulk of the attention due to the appeal it has over another non-conference clash between programs from notable leagues.
“Games with big teams that are constantly on TV and under the nation's magnifying glass are a lot easier to handle,” says an oddsmaker for SBG Global. “Most of the industry deals totals for TV games only for the majority of the season but that starts changing deeper into the season.”
So, now that you know where the oddsmakers are weakest, you’re probably wondering how to exploit that soft spot. Funny enough, books aren't shy about telling you.
“There’s a lot that goes into it, and a lot of that is coaching styles,” admits Kaminsky. “You have to know the tempo and the offense they run. It’s the same as other sports. Some coaches like to run up-tempo and others don’t.”
Covers Expert Steve Merril says you can find great value in college basketball totals when you have a mismatch in pace of play: a fast team versus a slow team.
“It is very difficult for oddsmakers to set totals on these games,” Merril says. “If you can accurately predict and handicap which team will be able to dictate the pace and tempo, you can often find value with both the side and total in this type of game.”
Another thing to take advantage of as the college schedule matures is the skewed records and stats produced from a unstable non-conference schedule. Teams with many new pieces may take time to come together or a team with a new coach could struggle to learn the system in the opening games of the year. Those wrinkles tend to iron themselves out by the time conference play tips off in the New Year.
One last tip for betting college hoops Over/Unders is to get the number early. As mentioned, the only ones betting NCAAB totals at this time of the season are the wise guys, who quickly hit a weak number hard and force oddsmakers to dramatically adjust those numbers. College basketball totals are for the most part the latest odds on the board, when compared to other sports, often times not showing up until just hours before game time.
It’s nothing to see a college basketball Over/Under quickly move double digits before tipoff. It’s those types of radical line moves that show just how difficult a job coming up with college basketball totals can be for sportsbooks.
“I will say one thing for them,” Kaminsky laughs. “At least you don’t have to worry about the weather.”
Editor's note: This story was originally published November 2014.
Nov 10, 2017
By: Jason Logan
The Over/Under lines on NCAA hoops games in the first couple months of the season are the most vulnerable you will find bookmakers at any point in the sports calendar. And they’ll be the first ones to tell you.
“Early (season), middle, late. Honestly, they’re all a nightmare,” Scott Kaminsky, line manager at TheGreek.com, tells Covers of college basketball totals. “The hardest thing for books to beat are totals. It’s a weakness for us all year round. But in the beginnings, the players have the edge.”
It’s a combination of elements that make early college hoops totals the books’ kryptonite. The recent trend of one-and-done players, since the NBA installed its sticky rules, has been a headache for oddsmakers with the constant turnaround of talent at major programs. With rosters switching up year-to-year, it’s tough to base any odds on last year’s production.
Add to those unknowns a massive schedule featuring more than 350 different schools (10 years ago sportsbooks didn’t book small conference games, sticking to the major conferences), coaches trying to find chemistry in their lineups, and the sheer volatility to predicting how a bunch of college kids will perform.
Ed Salmons, an oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, deals with another curve ball when tackling college basketball totals, pointing to different officiating crews around the country.
“College Hoops totals have always been the hardest thing for sportsbooks,” Salmons tells Covers. “Turnover in team players, referees who work the game and how they officiate it. Each game you have different refs from different conferences who are told how to call fouls or not to call fouls from a particular conference.”
And to make matters worse, the only people betting college basketball at this point in the schedule are the wiseguys, who can smell the blood in the water. In fact, when talking to most sportsbooks, the public really doesn’t have an influence on the NCAAB odds until the NCAA tournament begins in mid-March. That leaves line managers to go toe-to-toe with sharps for more than four months.
“During the regular season, the sharps are probably over 90 percent of your total (NCAAB) handle,” says Salmons.
It’s no wonder, with all those factors having a say and the wolves at the door each night, that sportsbooks protect themselves against college hoops totals with extremely low limits in the early goings. According to the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, college totals have a limit of $500 until March Madness, when they can go to $1,000 or higher – depending on the game.
“We have embarrassingly low limits on college basketball right now,” admits Kaminsky, whose customer base is almost entirely sharp bettors. “Probably going to be that low until the New Year.”
Oddsmakers also prioritize games, and not just for the ones being played in major conferences. Exposure factors into how much time is spent sharpening the number, so a nationally televised matchup – like that between Kansas and Kentucky in the Champions Classic earlier this month – will get the bulk of the attention due to the appeal it has over another non-conference clash between programs from notable leagues.
“Games with big teams that are constantly on TV and under the nation's magnifying glass are a lot easier to handle,” says an oddsmaker for SBG Global. “Most of the industry deals totals for TV games only for the majority of the season but that starts changing deeper into the season.”
So, now that you know where the oddsmakers are weakest, you’re probably wondering how to exploit that soft spot. Funny enough, books aren't shy about telling you.
“There’s a lot that goes into it, and a lot of that is coaching styles,” admits Kaminsky. “You have to know the tempo and the offense they run. It’s the same as other sports. Some coaches like to run up-tempo and others don’t.”
Covers Expert Steve Merril says you can find great value in college basketball totals when you have a mismatch in pace of play: a fast team versus a slow team.
“It is very difficult for oddsmakers to set totals on these games,” Merril says. “If you can accurately predict and handicap which team will be able to dictate the pace and tempo, you can often find value with both the side and total in this type of game.”
Another thing to take advantage of as the college schedule matures is the skewed records and stats produced from a unstable non-conference schedule. Teams with many new pieces may take time to come together or a team with a new coach could struggle to learn the system in the opening games of the year. Those wrinkles tend to iron themselves out by the time conference play tips off in the New Year.
One last tip for betting college hoops Over/Unders is to get the number early. As mentioned, the only ones betting NCAAB totals at this time of the season are the wise guys, who quickly hit a weak number hard and force oddsmakers to dramatically adjust those numbers. College basketball totals are for the most part the latest odds on the board, when compared to other sports, often times not showing up until just hours before game time.
It’s nothing to see a college basketball Over/Under quickly move double digits before tipoff. It’s those types of radical line moves that show just how difficult a job coming up with college basketball totals can be for sportsbooks.
“I will say one thing for them,” Kaminsky laughs. “At least you don’t have to worry about the weather.”
Editor's note: This story was originally published November 2014.
